Archive for Gambling
06.04.07
Posted in Gambling at 20:17 by dalore
I recently got emailed this question:
If 1:1 odds are “even odds,” it means that your horse has a 1-in-2 chance of
winning. 4:1 odds are the odds when your horse has a 1-in-5 chance of
winning. In popular culture/common usage, this would be worse than even
odds. Is the usage of the terms “better than even” and “worse than even”
different in gambling?
Most people make the classic mistake of thinking the odds on display are the odds that horse (or animal/event) will win. When in reality it’s the odds that the bookie will pay out on, which has a small correlation to, but it isn’t, the odds of the horse winning.
Now to explain why “better” means the way it is look at it from a gamblers perspective (rather then a statistician). (Using the odds provided above) If I was to put down £10 and the odds were 1:1 (evens), I would win a profit of £10. Now if the same horse was paying 4:1 (5-to-1) and it came in, I would win a profit of £40. From this, one can easily see why one is “better” then the other, it is because you win more money, which is why you made the bet in the first place.
As more people bet on a particular horse, a bookmaker moves the odds as to cover his books (so he pays out less if it does win). Now if the odds were representative of a probability, then they souldn’t move at all (baring some accident to the horse). This shows clearly that bookmaker odds have nothing to do with the chance of a horse winning (which in it self, would be a very difficult thing to measure), but entirely on a combination of how many people the bookmaker thinks will take this bet, and opposing bets (and a bit of profit for themselves).
All though back to the small correlation I mentioned earlier, what tends to happen in a free market is that the odds of paying tend to drift towards the true probability odds (or more likely a global perception of the true odds), as more and more people make a bet, influencing the setting of the odds. This is the free market in action, a giant supercomputer (a living, giant computer with us as the circuits) that can calculate a true probabilty that would in otherwise be very difficult to calculate. Let’s just hope there is no interstellar bypass that needs to be built 
So continuing the lesson, to make money at gambling, it’s NOT about picking the winner (all though that helps), it’s all about the relationship of the true odds to the payout odds. If you can consistently make bets where the odds of paying out are better (pay out more), then the true odds of the event, then over time (in theory) you will come out ahead. The way to do this is to know more then the bookmaker.
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01.19.07
Posted in Gambling at 20:33 by dalore
With two massive Premiership clashes set to explode into life at the weekend, the big four will all be looking for victories which may well prove vital come the end of the season.
Chelsea will be looking to put all the recent off field speculation behind them and claw back ground on Man Utd when they visit Liverpool in the live game on Saturday.
Chelsea will also have one eye on Sunday’s live clash, where they hope Arsenal do them a favour when they host leaders Manchester Utd at the Emirates Stadium.
Theres also loads of other football matches on. Thi s means there is lots of gambling action available, especially with free bets.
Ladbrokes has a special £50 free bet on Saturday for newcomers, which would be ideal for taking advantage of with matched betting.
Or otherwise check out the Free Bets Guide site for other offers.
Good Luck!
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12.30.06
Posted in Gambling at 00:52 by dalore
I’ve got a bet that you can’t lose on!
betinternet.com are currently offering a FREE £10 Bet on the Champions League Outright Market. Place your bet as normal and if it loses betinternet.com will give you your £10 back
So basically you make a bet on who is going to win the Champions League and if your team loses, you get your £10 back, if it wins, that’s even better. It’s a no risk bet. You don’t even have to know anything about football (but it can’t hurt), just pick a team. Hurry though, as it expires in the new year.
I choose Arsenal at odds of 15.0, which means I will get £150 back if Arsenal wins (£140 of which is profit). In the unlikely event of Arsenal losing (as if), I get my £10 deposit back.
Go the Gunners!
Also, if its your first time on betinternet.com don’t forget to collect the £25 free bet first using the matched betting techinques. So to collect both, you need to first deposit £60, then make a matched bet with odds equal to or greater then 2.0. Then you should make the Champions League bet and then collect your free bet when it is ready.
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12.28.06
Posted in Gambling at 22:03 by dalore
I hope some of you took advantage of the £50 free bet offer from Ladbrokes I mentioned earlier. I sure did, and here is how I did it.
First up, I deposited £50 to Ladbrokes to qualify for the offer. I made the qualifying bet on this:
Leeds vs Hull
Match betting
Draw @ 3.25
Stake: £50
Then I went over to Betfair and matched as close as I can a lay using the matched betting calculator:
Leeds v Hull
Match Odds
The Draw @ 3.4
Lay Amt: £48.51
Needed to deposit at least: £116.42
I lost the £116.42 I deposited at Betfair, but won £112.50 at Ladbrokes, which almosts cancels each other out. Which is why this is called a matched bet.
Next up is to collect the £50 free bet token without any risk. So to do this, I looked for and found a matched bet that had high odds and used the matched betting calculator again. Being sure I ticked the stake not returned option.
At the Ladbrokes side, I made this bet using my £50 free bet token:
Wigan vs Chelsea
Correct score
Chelsea 1 - 0 @ 7.00
Stake: £50 Free Bet Token
And matched it with a lay at Betfair:
Wigan v Chelsea
Correct Score
0 - 1 @ 6.8
Lay Amt: £44.44
Needed to deposit at least: £257.75
If you notice closely this is a mini arb (not taking into account Betfair commission), meaning the lay odds are less the back odds. Also it is nice and high which is good for collecting free bets which don’t have the stake returned (being the most common).
With that round, I won £44.44 (minus £2.22 which is the 5% commission) at the exchange, but lost the free bet at the bookie. So now we have to withdraw our money and see how we’ve ended up.
At Ladbrokes, I had £162.50 to withdraw. This consists of my initial £50 and my initial win of £112.50.
At Betfair I had £299.97 to withdraw (well actually I had more cause actual deposits had to be rounded up to a whole number, but for mathematical purposes, I’ll use the true bare minimum values needed to deposit, it won’t change the profit total). The Betfair values were made up of my second deposit of £257.75, plus the win of £44.44, minus the commission of £2.22.
So the total amount to withdraw adds up to £462.47. The total amount deposited consists of the intitial £50 into Ladbrokes, plus the 2 deposits into Betfair of £116.42 and £257.75 for a total of £424.17.
This means the profit is:
Withdrawed - Deposited
£462.47 - £424.17
£38.30
This was all risk free (not counting human error, which always exists). This wasn’t bad for about 10 or so minutes of browsing a website and submitting a few web forms, much better then filling in boring surveys online.
This concludes another round of matched betting, stay tuned for more matched betting opportunities.
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12.23.06
Posted in Gambling at 03:07 by dalore
Christmas will soon be upon us and we have a feast of sporting action to get your teeth in to! Premiership action, the King George VI Chase and the Ladbrokes World Darts Championship are the pick of the bunch to keep you entertained over the festive period.
Ladbrokes is offering a £50 Free Bet on Saturday to new customers.
Simply place a bet of £10 or more on Ladbrokes.com on Saturday and Ladbrokes will match it with a free bet up to £50!
I’m going to have a bet and let you know how I turn out. Good luck with yours.
What sport is on this festive period you ask?
The Ladbrokes.com World Darts Championship
With the first round matches drawing to a close this evening at the Circus Tavern, we have already witnessed several upsets including the departure of local hero Wayne Mardle following his 3-2 defeat to Alan Caves.
Boxing Day Extravanganza!
The King George VI Chase takes place at Kempton on Boxing Day with Kauto Star the 8/13 favourite to take the plaudits. The race is the highlight of a fantastic card, which also includes the Christmas Hurdle and the Feltham Novices Chase.
Football Highlights
The festive period serves up several Premiership treats including Wigan v Chelsea and Fulham v West Ham on Saturday as well as a full program of fixtures both North and South of the border on Boxing Day.
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11.14.06
Posted in Gambling at 17:46 by dalore
Recently I took part in a succesful Guinness world record attempt for the largest strip poker event. It was the Paddy Power Strip Poker Championship. It was attended by over 200 people. The problem was that the majority of player were blokes so there was a bit too much sausage for my liking. But the girls that did attend were paid and rushed in at the last minute from model and acting agencies so they were lush looking.
During the tournament I managed to make it through about halfway. About the same time as the open bar opened, talk about timing. When the bar was opened, I managed to make full use of it as I was blind rotten (I don’t even remember how I got home).
During the game they changed the rules because they thought people weren’t getting nekkid fast enough. It used to be as you ran out of chips, you used one of your rebuys to buy a multiple of the current blind, and your rebuy chips matching the amount of clothes. A quarter of the way in they said no more rebuys from now one, if you want to use them you have to use them all now. So, basically everyone used all their rebuys and we sat and played nekkid poker (in your jocks with a towel). Which in my opinion is no longer strip poker, but nekkid poker. But I guess it is only the opinion of the Guinsess World Record officials that matters as we still made the world record.
Well a few laters they send us out a pack which contained a certificate, some pictures in a book and a short dvd. Well I ripped the dvd and made a divx for you. See if you can spot my drunk face bobbing in the crowd. And mind the wangs.
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06.09.06
Posted in Gambling at 18:49 by dalore
The world cup has began, first match of Germany vs Costa Rica a resounding 4-2.
Now is a good as time as any to plug my free bets site. Free football bets here. General free sports bet here.
Good Luck!
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03.15.06
Posted in Gambling at 16:20 by dalore
For this week (13-17th March) VictorChandler has a £60 free matched bet offer (normally £20). Which means, using the guide you can collect £40-50 in your pocket.
How to do it:
You will need to signup to both a betting exchange, and a VictorChandler. Once signed up to both, deposit £60 into your VictorChandler account as we are going to make a £60 bet with them. You need to first bet £60 of your own money before they will give you a £60 free bet, but don’t worry there is no chance of you loosing it with the system.
Now you will need to find an event thats on both VictorChandler and on your betting exchange where the odds at VictorChandler are above 2 (part of the T&C). In my case I found a good match on the UEFA game Roma v Middlesbrough. I matched up the draw with a 3.6 at VictorChandler and a 3.75 at Betdaq. According to the calc at the guide, this is a good close match only loosing 7.57% of the initial stake.
(note :If your too late for this match, try find other close matching odds and stick them in the calculator.)
Now looking at the calculator, look at the field that’s labelled ‘Lay Risk’. You will need to deposit at least this amount into your Betdaq account. Now look at the field on the calculator that is labelled ‘Lay Amount’. Make a lay bet for this amount at Betdaq.
Then make a normal £60 bet for the same thing at VictorChandler.
Wait till the bets are settled. After the bets are settled, you should be out of pocket £4.54, but also have a £60 free bet at VictorChandler to use. Repeat the process with the free bet and because the winning stake is not returned (info in the guide) you should have around £40-50 gain.
Update: For the second bet I found a nice little match with 5.0 for the bookmaker and 5.2 for the exchange. I matched this up using the calculator, and made sure I choose stake not returned. After the bet settled I was up £40 with no risk to myself. Not bad I say.
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02.24.06
Posted in Gambling at 19:06 by dalore
I suppose everyone has heard of the Cheney shooting incident by now, if not you’ve been living under a rock. Even the Daily Show had 3 straight episodes on the subject. I think it’s all been blown out of proportion in the news. I mean, one old person gets shot by accident on a hunting accident and doesn’t even die. How is this news? People are getting shot and killed all over the world.
Anyways, Bodog.com sent me a mailout the other day and in it you can bet on this very incident (no not if the guy will die or anything sensible like that). This is the bet and the odds as of now:
Will it be publicly revealed by December 31, 2006 that Vice President Dick Cheney did not shoot Harry Whittington?
Yes +500
Personally, I’d take the “No” option if it were available, but then I guess that would be the sensible option.
On another by similiar matter, if your a regulary Daily Show watcher, you might have seen the bit where they joke about how short a turnover the Whitehouse Press Secretary job is. I guess lieing to the public is a hard job. Here is the bet you can take:
Will Scott McClellan be fired/resign from his post as Press Secretary within the next?
Within 0-3 months 5/1
Within 3-6 months 2/1
Within 6-9 months 3/1
Within 9-18 months 4/1
Within 18 months-Until the last day of Bush’s term 10/1
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11.04.05
Posted in Gambling at 13:05 by dalore
There is a big match coming up this Sunday. Its Man Utd vs Chelsea at Old Trafford. Chelsea is the favourite.
betinternet.com have a great promotion at the moment. Their offer is:
Place a £10 Correct Score bet on this weekend’s Man Utd versus Chelsea match. If your Correct Score bet loses, we will refund your stake.
Its a no lose bet. If you pick a winner you get £10 x the odds you chose, if you don’t win you get your £10 back! You can’t complain about that.
So what score to choose? The odds I see at the moment:
| Correct Score |
| Man Utd 1-0 |
8.00 |
Chelsea 3-0 |
23.00 |
| Man Utd 2-0 |
15.00 |
Chelsea 3-1 |
19.00 |
| Man Utd 2-1 |
12.00 |
Chelsea 3-2 |
26.00 |
| Man Utd 3-0 |
41.00 |
Chelsea 4-0 |
67.00 |
| Man Utd 3-1 |
26.00 |
Chelsea 4-1 |
41.00 |
| Man Utd 3-2 |
29.00 |
Chelsea 4-2 |
51.00 |
| Man Utd 4-0 |
101.00 |
Chelsea 5-0 |
151.00 |
| Man Utd 4-1 |
67.00 |
Chelsea 5-1 |
126.00 |
| Man Utd 4-2 |
81.00 |
Chelsea 6-0 |
151.00 |
| Man Utd 5-0 |
151.00 |
Draw 0-0 |
8.50 |
| Chelsea 1-0 |
6.50 |
Draw 1-1 |
6.50 |
| Chelsea 2-0 |
11.00 |
Draw 2-2 |
15.00 |
| Chelsea 2-1 |
9.50 |
Draw 3-3 |
51.00 |
Ok, me being Australian, I don’t much about Soccer. Yes, Yes I keep getting told its called football cause its the only one where you play the ball with your foot most of the time. But I like to use the term Soccer because its unambiguous. I know I’ll get hell from my European mates but oh well.
Well I asked around the office and my secret tipster as given me this slice of info:
Tough one. Well, ManU are playing like a bunch of cabbages lately, but it’s at Old Trafford and Mourinho is concerned with Chelsea’s defence conceding goals lately, which probably means he’ll play defensively with Drogba as a single striker so I’m not sure Chelsea will be adventurous enough to score 3 goals unless ManU totally roll over and play dead!
If both teams approach it cautiously I reckon a 0-0 draw. If they attack each other, and especially if ManU go 1-0 up, forcing Mourinho to change formation then yes, all hell will break loose and 3-1 Chelsea is tempting at those odds!
Someone else suggested 3-1 Chelsea also, so I have now placed a correct score bet on Chelsea 3-1.
Have a go!
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